Envirocast Media Update for Tuesday, September 9, 2003

Envirocast^TM TV for Tuesday, September 9, 2003

Hurricane Isabel

Background

Images

The images to the right were taken by the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard NASA's Terra satellite. They show Hurricane Isabel at 13:45 UTC (9:45 a.m. EDT) on September 8, 2003, as it was located approximately 1,265 miles east of the Leeward Islands, moving towards the west-northwest at 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 115 mph (for updated statistics, see below).

The NOAA satellite images below show Hurricane Isabel as of 8:45 a.m. EDT on Sept. 9, 2003:
720x486	640x480	720x486	640x480

Environmental Impacts:

As of the 5 p.m. EDT on Sept. 9:
- Isabel was located 930 miles east-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands of the Caribbean Sea.
- The storm was moving to the west-northwest near 13 mph.
- Maximum sustained winds were near 135 mph.
- Isabel is rated as a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
- The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb, 27.99 inches

Some slight additional strengthening is possible over the next 24 hours, with a gradual turn toward the west expected afterwards.

Isabel is the fourth hurricane and the second major (category 3 or higher) hurricane so far this year in the Atlantic.

Climatologically, August, September and October are most active months during the Atlantic hurricane season, with a peak in activity occurring around September 10. Historically, 78% of the tropical storm days, 87% of the minor (categories 1 and 2) hurricane days, and 96% of the major (categories 3, 4 and 5) hurricane days occur during this three-month period.

The table below outlines the how this year's Atlantic hurricane season compares with an average season, as well as the updated seasonal forecasts made by NOAA and Colorado State University hurricane researcher Dr. Bill Gray:

Named Storms Hurricanes Major Hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5)

Actual (as of 9/9/03) 9 4 2

Average Season 10 6 2

NOAA Forecast 12-15 7-9 3-4

Dr. Bill Gray's Forecast 14 7 3

	Image NTSC 720x486 030909_01_tva.jpg shows Hurricane Isabel on Sept. 8, 2003, with annotations.
	Image NTSC 720x486 030909_02_tva.jpg is the same as above, without annotations.
Hi-Res Zoom Into the Eye:
	Image NTSC 720x486 030909_03_tva.jpg shows a close-up of Isabel's eye, with annotations.
	Image NTSC 720x486 030909_04_tva.jpg is the same as above, without annotations.

	Image NTSC 640x480 030909_01_tvb.jpg shows Hurricane Isabel on Sept. 8, 2003, with annotations.
	Image NTSC 640x480 030909_02_tvb.jpg is the same as above, without annotations.
Hi-Res Zoom Into the Eye:
	Image NTSC 640x480 030909_03_tvb.jpg shows a close-up of Isabel's eye, with annotations.
	Image NTSC 640x480 030909_04_tvb.jpg is the same as above, without annotations.

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