StormCenter Communications, Inc. & AEF, Inc. Team Up

Monday, September 15, 2003

Experts Team Up to Deliver the RealTrack^TM System via the Web

New Generation of Hurricane Forecast Models Describe Damage Inland

StormCenter Communications, Inc. and Accurate Environmental Forecasting, Inc. have teamed up to deliver a new hurricane forecast model that has been used at the National Hurricane Center and in some selected private industry locations for more than 5 years. The AEF RealTrack^TM Hurricane Model was developed over the past 10 years by researchers who have dedicated their lives to oceanic and atmospheric modeling. Subscribers will have direct access to the RealTrack Suite of Exclusive Products such as:

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AEF RealTrack Forecast
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Track Forecast
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Probability Forecast
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Wind Forecast
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Precipitation Forecast
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Exclusive 6-Day Outlook
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A key differentiator with the RealTrack^TM Hurricane Model is the production of combined AEF/AIR real-time loss estimates which provide the most accurate assessment of potential risks for all landfalling hurricanes along the U.S. coastline.

RealTrack is Your ONLY Source of Real-Time Loss Estimates

RealTrack^TM proprietary technology delivers exceptional damage estimating power to your desktop and is a MUST for decision makers and the media. Now, you can estimate Post-Hurricane Damage due to the wind distribution when the hurricane makes landfall. See the example of wind distribution for Hurricane Lili along the gulf coast in September 2002. Model Forecast of Wind Distribution.

· Real-Time Hurricane Forecast System – Error Analyses

All of our hurricane forecasts come with formally derived error estimates that are based upon the known errors in the model itself.

About the RealTrack^TM Hurricane Model - A Hurricane Forecast System

The AEF Hurricane Forecast System is based on the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) premiere operational hurricane model that we have numerically coupled to the state-of-the-art AEF ocean model to improve the intensity forecast. We use real time global meteorological data from the U.S. National Weather Service, the U.S. Navy and other weather forecast centers, AVHRR satellite analysis of the sea surface temperature, historic ocean climatology data from the U.S. Navy and real-time data from the National Hurricane Center.

Our Hurricane Forecast System has been tested and validated against historical hurricanes in the western Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico and successfully applied for real-time hurricane forecasts since 1998. The AEF hurricane model avoids the recognized problems inherent in the 'parametric' environmental hazard models that are currently in widespread use by the insurance industry.

Official NHC/TPC Forecast Valid: September 13, 2003 5pm EDT

National Hurricane Center (NHC/TPC) Products

Environmental Impacts:

As of 5 p.m. EDT on Sept. 13:
ISABEL STRENGTHENS BACK INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 375 MILES...600 KM...NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS MEASURED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THIS MAKES ISABEL A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite (TRMM) has captured intense rainfall surrounding the eye of Isabel. Rainfall rates exceed 2-3 inches per hour with RealTrack^TM Precipitation Output estimating rainfall accumulations exceeding 15-20 inches due to the slow movement of Isabel.
LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO ...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
Before Isabel, only 23 Atlantic storms have reached category 5 intensity, and only nine were of category 5 strength at time of landfall. This includes the updated classification of Andrew in 2002.

Only three Category 5 hurricanes have hit the USA:

Florida Keys "Labor Day" hurricane (1935)
Hurricane Camille (1969)
Hurricane Andrew (1992)

Isabel is the fourth hurricane and the second major (category 3 or higher) hurricane so far this year in the Atlantic.

The table below outlines the how this year's Atlantic hurricane season compares with an average season, as well as the updated seasonal forecasts made by NOAA and Colorado State University hurricane researcher Dr. Bill Gray:

Named Storms Hurricanes Major Hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5)

Actual (as of 9/13/03) 9 4 2

Average Season 10 6 2

NOAA Forecast 12-15 7-9 3-4

Dr. Bill Gray's Forecast 14 7 3

Hurricane Isabel RealTrack^TM Forecast Latest Model Run: Saturday September 13, 2003 at 12Z Next Model Run: Saturday September 13, 2003 18Z
The RealTrack probability map shows confidence intervals for the storm track forecast. For example, the 60% color group (red, yellow, and blue) covers the region in which there is a 60% chance that the storm track will fall within this area.
	RealTrack Probability Forecast (Wide)
	RealTrack Probability Forecast (Zoom Track 1)
	RealTrack Probability Forecast (Zoom Track 2)
The RealTrack Wind Swath Map indicates the maximum sustained surface wind in mph that is predicted to occur in a given location for the entire duration of the forecast.
Hurricane Isabel RealTrack Forecast Latest Model Run: Saturday September 13, 2003 at 12Z Next Model Run: Saturday September 13, 2003 18Z
	RealTrack Wind Swath Wide
	RealTrack Wind Swath Zoom 1
	RealTrack Wind Swath Zoom 2
RealTrack Extended 6-day Outlook. The wind swath map indicates the maximum sustained surface wind in mph that is predicted to occur in a given location for the entire duration of the forecast. Please note that forecast accuracy in the 3 to 5 day interval has not been well quantified and this information should be regarded as speculative.
	RealTrack 6 Day Outlook Speculative - Use with Caution
	RealTrack 6 Day Outlook Zoom 1 Speculative - Use with Caution
	RealTrack 6 Day Outlook Zoom 2 Speculative - Use with Caution

Other Forecast Models:
	Track prediction forecasts from other models.
Select Exclusive Satellite Imagery:
	Image NTSC 640x480 Isabel_Modis_091203_640x480.jpg is the same as above, at 640x480.

Put RealTrack^TM to work for your organization. Contact AEF, Inc. below to subscribe and have the latest model output delivered to you through StormCenter Communications Envirocast. Accurate Environmental Forecasting, Inc. 165 Dean Knauss Drive Narragansett, RI 02882 (401) 788-9031 Telephone (401) 788-9034 Fax Website: http://www.accufore.com Email Contact Information info@accufore.com

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